A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
